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A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Stir Debate

The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the alternative positions."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."