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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new initiative from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.